CapIQ

Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-08-03.

Earnings Cut, Revenue Held

Penumbra's forward tape splits in two. Analysts still model low-double-digit revenue growth through 2028, and revenue estimates have barely moved in six months. But the earnings line is being marked down: FY2028 normalized EPS consensus has slipped from $7.88 to $7.31, FY2027 from $6.43 to $6.20. The prints agree — six straight EPS beats, then misses in the last two quarters, the June quarter a -14.4% surprise. The Street sits mostly on Hold.

EPS estimates are being cut while the revenue line holds

Source: derived from vendor data.

The two forward years with point-in-time history tell one story. Normalized EPS consensus stepped down at every reading over the past six months — FY2028 from $7.88 to $7.31 (a -7.2% revision), FY2027 from $6.43 to $6.20 (-3.5%). Revenue did the opposite of moving: FY2027 sits at $1,802M today versus $1,801M six months ago (+0.1%), FY2028 at $2,043M versus $2,028M (+0.7%). Earnings, not the top line, are what analysts are rethinking.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Six straight EPS beats, then two misses

The revision cut is not happening in a vacuum — the prints turned. Penumbra beat normalized EPS for six consecutive quarters, several by double digits, then missed the last two: 1Q26 by -4.6% and 2Q26 by -14.4%. Revenue tells a gentler version of the same turn: beats that shrank from mid-single digits to essentially in-line by 2Q26. The top line arrived on plan; earnings did not.

The forward shape: low-double-digit revenue growth, wider earnings, thin outer years

Levels still describe a growth company. Consensus revenue climbs from $1,404M realized in FY2025 to about $2,043M by FY2028 — growth of 13.7%, 12.9% and 13.4% across the three years — while earnings compound faster still, up 23.6% in FY2026 and 30.7% in FY2027 as gross margin is modelled from 67.1% toward 70.7%. That operating leverage is exactly what the recent EPS cuts are trimming at the edges, not erasing.

Source: derived from vendor data. FY2025 is reported actual; FY2026 onward are consensus means.

Below the top line the dispersion widens with the horizon and coverage thins fast. FY2027 normalized EPS spans $5.12 to $7.06 across 13 analysts; by FY2029 only two analysts remain, and the current year, FY2026, is modelled by just five on the annual line.

Source: derived from vendor data.

The Street sits on Hold

Positioning is cautious rather than divided. Of 16 rated analysts, 13 are on Hold, with two Buys and one Outperform and no negative ratings. Price targets cluster tightly — a low of $320 against a high and median of $374, mean $361.58 — so the debate is about the size of upside, not its direction.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Source: derived from vendor data. Based on 12 price-target estimates.

For the driver-level broker models behind these lines — segment revenue, margin build and unit assumptions — see the Visible Alpha tab.