Visible Alpha

Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 16 brokers · 353 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-31.

Modeled Path

Brokers model Penumbra as a steady mid-teens grower whose earnings compound about twice as fast as its sales. Reported revenue growth eases from roughly 16% in FY-2025 toward 13% by FY-2028, yet operating diluted EPS climbs from $3.78 to $7.26 as the cost of revenue falls toward 29% of sales and EBITDA margin lifts from about 17% to 21%. Thrombectomy is the engine. The forward path rests on just three brokers.

The modeled endpoint

Source: derived from vendor data.

These are the FY-2028 waypoints of the consensus model: low-teens revenue growth, an EBITDA margin two-to-three points wider than today, operating earnings near double the FY-2025 level, and free cash flow that scales with them. Every forward figure on this tab is a three-broker view — read it as direction, not precision.

Thrombectomy carries the model

Penumbra reports in two product lines, and the models put almost all of the growth in one of them. Thrombectomy — the larger line, roughly two-thirds of revenue — is modeled to grow low-double-digits every year; embolization grows with it early but decelerates sharply, its reported growth falling from the mid-teens toward single digits by FY-2027.

Source: derived from vendor data.

The mix is also a geographic story. The United States is roughly four-fifths of revenue and the faster grower: US thrombectomy carries the highest modeled growth of any line, around 21% in FY-2025 easing to the mid-teens thereafter, while international revenue advances at a more modest pace.

Source: derived from vendor data.

The real story is operating leverage

Growth is only half of it. The models have earnings compounding faster than sales because unit costs fall: cost of revenue drops from about 33% of sales in FY-2025 toward 29% by FY-2028, and EBITDA margin rises in step from roughly 17% to 21%. This is the axis on which the earnings estimate is built.

Source: derived from vendor data.

The payoff is in the per-share line. Operating diluted EPS is modeled to move from $3.78 to $7.26 over the same span — a near-doubling on revenue that grows only about half as much, the signature of a business the models expect to lever its fixed base.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Consensus is tight on the top line; the debate is the out-year margin

Where brokers agree and where they don't is itself the signal. On the FY-2028 top line the three modelers cluster within a few percent of each other; the product-line splits are tight too. The disagreement lives in two places: the legacy neurovascular/vascular cut, which only two brokers carry and where they split almost two-to-one, and the out-year margin.

Source: derived from vendor data.

The margin debate is the one that moves value. The three brokers agree the EBITDA margin rises, but they widen apart on how far: by FY-2028 the low view sits near 19% and the high view above 24% — a five-point spread on a two-billion-dollar revenue base is real money, and it is the single most consequential unresolved line in the model.

Source: derived from vendor data.

The forward path rests on three brokers

The coverage thins abruptly as the model goes forward. Recent actual quarters carried fifteen or sixteen models; the estimate quarters that build the FY-2027 and FY-2028 picture carry two or three. The trajectory above is well-defined, but it is a small panel, and one revision can move it.

Source: derived from vendor data.

For the headline revenue and EPS consensus, its momentum and the beat/miss record, see the CapIQ tab; this page is the line-item and dispersion view beneath it.

Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.